Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sogard singled to right, Seigler scored.4–2
- 9Seigler tripled to right, White scored.3–2
- 8Abreu scored on Ekness wild pitch, Contreras to second on wild pitch by Ekness.2–2
- 8Abreu scored on Ekness wild pitch, Contreras to second on wild pitch by Ekness.2–2
- 7Edwards singled to right, Lopez scored, Caissie to second, Hernández to third.1–2
- 5Gasper doubled to center, Duran scored.1–1
- 2Lopez hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsee scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -124 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +18 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 41–254th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–65 | 65–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 61–65–4 | 63–64–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.