Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mack grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marsee scored, Conine out at second.2–6
- 6Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Conine scored.2–5
- 6Mack doubled to left, Marsee scored, Conine to third.2–4
- 6Vivas doubled to center, Ruiz scored.2–3
- 5Edwards singled to left, Lopez scored and Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.1–3
- 4Crews doubled to center, Lile scored.1–1
- 1Hernández doubled to left, Ramírez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 60%
- ML WSH +147 / MIA -158
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.4%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -151
- WSH +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −10 | WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +45 Elo | MIA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 40–254th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–56 | 64–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 28–31 |
| Underdog | 56–41 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 67–57–7 | 63–64–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–27 MIA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 47.