Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adell singled to center, Halpin scored, Ramírez to second.1–11
- 6Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Halpin to second.1–10
- 4Ramírez homered to right center (380 feet), DeLauter scored.1–9
- 4DeLauter doubled to right, Kwan scored.1–7
- 3Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramírez scored.1–6
- 3Adell doubled to left, Kwan scored and DeLauter scored, Ramírez to third.1–5
- 1Lowe homered to left center (373 feet), Adell scored.1–3
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, DeLauter scored.1–1
- 1Perez singled to right, Caglianone scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML KC +162 / CLE -174
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.2%, market 62.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -166
- KC +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +50 Elo | CLE 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–45 | Road vs home | 31–3625th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–63 | 66–70 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 26–51 |
| Underdog | 54–36 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 62–69–6 | 63–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 24–24 CLE in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.