Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Austin HedgesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Moises BallesterosBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- George KlassenPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Campero hit sacrifice fly to center, Grissom scored.4–2
- 6Hedges homered to center (393 feet), Genao scored.4–1
- 5Adell singled to center, Rocchio scored.2–1
- 4Ballesteros singled to center, Neto scored, Grissom to third.1–1
- 3Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML CLE -161 / LAA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 3.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: George Klassen: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +35 Elo | CLE 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 29–3627th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Elo rating | 144928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–67 | 61–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–48 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–45 |
| Overs–unders | 61–69–1 | 53–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 14–8 LAA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.