Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.7–2
- 4Lowe singled to center, DeLauter scored.6–2
- 2Ritter grounded out to third, Beck scored, B. Sullivan to third.5–2
- 2B. Sullivan doubled to right, Norby scored, Beck to third.5–1
- 2Adell doubled to left, Kwan scored, DeLauter to third.5–0
- 2DeLauter singled to center, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.4–0
- 1Martínez singled to right, Lowe scored, Martínez thrown out at second, Bazzana to third.3–0
- 1Adell singled to left, DeLauter scored.2–0
- 1DeLauter tripled to right, Kwan scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML CLE -158 / COL +147
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.8%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -151
- COL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 6.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +17 | CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 27–3729th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–67 | 67–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–48 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 62–57 |
| Overs–unders | 61–68–1 | 62–63–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–5 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.