Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Norby homered to left (373 feet).4–3
- 6Bailey singled to left, Adell scored, Lowe to second.4–2
- 5Moniak homered to right center (407 feet).3–2
- 4Johnston doubled to left, Castro scored, Johnston to third.3–1
- 4Adell homered to left center (450 feet), DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -129 / COL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 27–3628th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 13th of 301497 | Elo rating | 141330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 66–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–47 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 61–57 |
| Overs–unders | 61–67–1 | 62–62–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.