Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Patrick BaileyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bazzana singled to right, Lowe scored.9–1
- 7Bailey homered to right center (418 feet), Lowe scored and Bazzana scored.8–1
- 6Kwan grounded out to shortstop, Bazzana scored, Halpin to second.5–1
- 5Adell singled to left, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.4–1
- 4Bazzana singled to left, Lowe scored and Genao scored.3–1
- 3Halpin homered to right center (422 feet).1–1
- 1Castro singled to center, McCarthy scored, Rumfield to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CLE -150 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.3%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -144
- COL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −24 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +87 Elo | CLE 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 27–3528th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 141630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–66 | 66–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–47 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 61–56 |
| Overs–unders | 61–66–1 | 62–61–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.