Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-6, 5 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ramírez doubled to center, Kwan and Rocchio scored.8–6
- 8Ramírez doubled to left, Kwan scored.6–6
- 5Grissom homered to left (385 feet).5–6
- 5Kwan singled to right, Halpin scored, Rocchio to third.5–5
- 5Rocchio singled to right, Martínez scored, Halpin to second.4–5
- 4Ramírez doubled to center, Bazzana and Kwan scored.3–5
- 4Bazzana doubled to center, Bailey scored, Kwan to third.1–5
- 2Neto singled to center, Guzman scored.0–5
- 2Guzman doubled to right, Siri scored.0–4
- 2Moore homered to left center (389 feet).0–3
- 1Grissom homered to left (389 feet), Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -140 / LAA +131
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 29–3727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 144828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 61–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–46 |
| Overs–unders | 61–70–1 | 53–76–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 15–8 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.