Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bazzana hit sacrifice fly to right, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.4–3
- 9Kwan hit a ground rule double, Halpin scored, Rocchio to third.3–3
- 8Lowe singled to left, Bazzana scored, Adell to second.2–3
- 5Bazzana hit sacrifice fly to left, Rocchio scored.1–3
- 2Trout hit sacrifice fly to center, Guzman scored.0–3
- 2Neto hit by pitch, Lowe scored, Teodosio to second, Guzman to third.0–2
- 1Grissom reached on infield single to pitcher, Neto scored on throwing error by pitcher Cantillo, Grissom thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -136 / LAA +126
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −18 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +62 Elo | CLE 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 29–3827th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Elo rating | 144628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–67 | 61–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–48 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–47 |
| Overs–unders | 62–70–1 | 54–76–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–8 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.