Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-3
- Randy DobnakPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chad DallasPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lukes homered to right center (390 feet), Sánchez scored and Okamoto scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML KC +146 / TOR -157
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- KC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −25 | KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +1 Elo | KC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–44 | Road vs home | 33–3420th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–62 | 68–65 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 51–35 | 43–24 |
| Overs–unders | 60–67–6 | 66–62–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–10 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.