Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grisham homered to center (413 feet).3–8
- 8Kirk singled to center, Straw scored.3–7
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.2–7
- 6Rice singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored and Jones scored, Grisham to third.2–5
- 6Grisham walked, Lombard Jr. scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Jones to third.2–3
- 4Cameron hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.2–2
- 3Bateman hit sacrifice fly to center, McAdoo scored, Straw to third.1–2
- 2Wells doubled to right, Jones scored.0–2
- 2Jones doubled to center, Lombard Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML TOR +114 / NYY -122
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -118
- TOR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +4 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +65 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 32–2815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–63 | 68–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 46–52 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 65–62–4 | 52–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 29–26 NYY in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 55.