Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8García Jr. homered to right (387 feet), Rice scored.4–3
- 8Lukes homered to right (384 feet).4–1
- 7Wells singled to center, Lombard Jr. scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.3–1
- 5Lukes singled to center, Kirk scored, Springer to third.3–0
- 4McAdoo singled to center, Okamoto scored, Clement to second.2–0
- 1Springer singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -106 / NYY -101
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 43.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- NYY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +8 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 32–2712th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150011th of 30 |
| 12th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–63 | 68–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 46–51 |
| Underdog | 42–23 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 64–62–4 | 51–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 28–26 NYY in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 54.