Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting3-5
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kirk singled to right, Bateman scored.1–3
- 4Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Lombard Jr. scored, Grisham to third.0–3
- 2Jones homered to right (385 feet), Grisham scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML TOR +179 / NYY -193
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -184
- TOR +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | TOR: Mason Fluharty: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 31–2713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–62 | 67–60 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 45–51 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 64–61–4 | 51–71–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 28–25 NYY in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 53.