Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- John RaveBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lukes singled to left, Cameron scored and Bateman scored, Lukes out stretching at second. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.5–3
- 9Rave singled to center, Tolbert scored.5–1
- 6Jensen hit sacrifice fly to center, Rave scored.4–1
- 6Isbel hit sacrifice bunt, Loftin scored, Isbel to first on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Isbel to second, Rave to third.3–1
- 5Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to third.2–1
- 1Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Bateman scored.1–1
- 1Perez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Jensen scored, Pasquantino out at second, Witt Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML KC +120 / TOR -129
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −18 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +43 Elo | TOR 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3022–44 | Road vs home | 33–3319th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–62 | 68–64 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 25–40 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 43–24 |
| Overs–unders | 60–67–5 | 66–62–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–10 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.