Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Josh RojasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martínez singled to center, Ramírez scored.8–3
- 8Rojas homered to right (360 feet), Rave scored.8–2
- 6Rojas singled to left, Loftin scored and Rave scored, Collins to second.6–2
- 6Rave grounded into fielder's choice to third, Caglianone scored on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Loftin to second, Perez to third.4–2
- 6Perez doubled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to third.3–2
- 5Collins doubled to left, Loftin scored and Tolbert scored.2–2
- 2Martínez homered to left (381 feet), Adell scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML KC +148 / CLE -159
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -152
- KC +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +41 Elo | CLE 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–45 | Road vs home | 31–3525th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–63 | 66–69 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 26–50 |
| Underdog | 53–36 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 61–69–6 | 62–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 23–24 CLE in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.