Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting5-6, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caglianone homered to right (409 feet), Tolbert scored.13–2
- 8Pasquantino singled to right, Caglianone scored.11–2
- 6Springer homered to center (404 feet), Kirk scored.10–2
- 6Pasquantino homered to right (370 feet), Caglianone scored.10–0
- 6Caglianone singled to right, Jensen scored and Witt Jr. scored.8–0
- 6Witt Jr. doubled to left, Isbel scored, Jensen to third.6–0
- 6Isbel doubled to center, Rojas scored.5–0
- 2Caglianone singled to right, Rojas scored and Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 1Perez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Witt Jr. scored on fielding error by pitcher Arrighetti, Caglianone to second.2–0
- 1Jensen homered to right (421 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML KC -104 / TOR -103
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- KC: Elo 43.4%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- TOR +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +46 Elo | TOR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3023–45 | Road vs home | 34–3418th of 30 |
| 28th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–63 | 69–65 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–27 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 51–36 | 43–24 |
| Overs–unders | 60–68–6 | 66–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–11 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.