Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to left (400 feet), Hernández scored.6–2
- 9Marsee stole home, Hernández stole second.4–2
- 9Marsee stole home, Hernández stole second.4–2
- 9Mack hit sacrifice fly to center, Conine scored on error and Jiménez scored on throwing error by center fielder Pinckney, Marsee safe at third on error.3–2
- 9Marsee hit by pitch, Ruiz scored, Jiménez to second, Conine to third.1–2
- 8Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, House scored.0–2
- 5Nuñez doubled to right, Young scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML MIA +108 / WSH -116
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.0%, market 52.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -112
- MIA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +21 Elo | WSH 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–41 | Road vs home | 31–3827th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–70 | 79–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 21–17 |
| Underdog | 37–37 | 58–42 |
| Overs–unders | 66–66–4 | 71–59–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 28–22 WSH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 50.