Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Connor NorbyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will DionPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar singled to center, Moniak scored and Norby scored, Johnston to second.13–1
- 8Norby singled to center, Ritter scored, Moniak to second.11–1
- 8Goodman homered to left center (435 feet), Carrigg scored.10–1
- 7Norby homered to center (402 feet), Goodman scored, Rumfield scored and Castro scored.8–1
- 5Carrigg homered to left center (395 feet), McCarthy scored.4–1
- 5Johnston homered to right center (403 feet), Norby scored.2–1
- 2Chaparro homered to left (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML COL +121 / WSH -129
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.3%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −11 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +95 Elo | WSH 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–43 | Road vs home | 28–3727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 147225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–64 | 76–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–16 |
| Underdog | 63–59 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders | 63–65–4 | 68–58–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–14 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.