Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason AdamsPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Carrigg struck out swinging, Beck scored, McCarthy to third on wild pitch by Alvarez.3–1
- 4Lile homered to right (401 feet).2–1
- 4Norby doubled to center, Castro scored, Norby thrown out at third.2–0
- 4Goodman homered to left center (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 60%
- ML COL +147 / WSH -157
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.9%, market 60.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -151
- COL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +14 | COL: Mason Adams (no track record yet) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +85 Elo | WSH 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–43 | Road vs home | 28–3628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–64 | 76–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–15 |
| Underdog | 62–59 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders | 63–64–4 | 68–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–14 WSH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.