Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lile homered to right center (420 feet), Ortiz scored and Crews scored.3–13
- 8Norby singled to right, Moniak scored, Johnston to second, Rumfield to third.3–10
- 7Vivas singled to center, Ruiz scored and Young scored.2–10
- 6Lile singled to right, Abrams scored and Ortiz scored, Crews to third.2–8
- 6Crews walked, Nuñez scored, Ortiz to second, Abrams to third.2–6
- 5Lile scored on throwing error by catcher B. Sullivan.2–5
- 5Lile scored on throwing error by catcher B. Sullivan.2–5
- 5Ortiz grounded out to second, Abrams scored.2–4
- 5Abrams doubled to right, Nuñez scored.2–3
- 5Nuñez hit sacrifice bunt, Young scored and Vivas scored, Nuñez to first on throwing error by third baseman Castro, Nuñez to third.2–2
- 5Tovar homered to center (416 feet).2–0
- 4Castro homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 65%
- ML COL +180 / WSH -194
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.4%, market 64.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -185
- COL +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +16 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +95 Elo | WSH 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–42 | Road vs home | 27–3628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–63 | 75–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 19–15 |
| Underdog | 62–58 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders | 62–64–4 | 67–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–13 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.