Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz homered to right (370 feet), House scored.1–7
- 8House doubled to right, Lile scored.1–5
- 5Lile homered to right (399 feet).1–4
- 4Crews grounded out to catcher, Young scored, Abrams to second, Vivas to third. Colorado Rockies challenged: call on the field was overturned.1–3
- 3B. Sullivan reached on infield single to second, Castro scored, Johnston to second, Rumfield to third.1–2
- 1House hit sacrifice fly to left, Crews scored, Lile to second.0–2
- 1Lile singled to left, Abrams scored, Crews to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML COL +131 / WSH -140
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +65 Elo | WSH 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–43 | Road vs home | 28–3828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 30th of 301415 | Elo rating | 146627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–64 | 76–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 64–59 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders | 64–65–4 | 69–58–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 12–14 WSH in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.