Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick MonteverdePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández homered to center (432 feet).2–9
- 7Lile tripled to center, Crews scored.1–9
- 7Crews doubled to left, Chaparro scored and Ortiz scored.1–8
- 7Ford homered to center (393 feet).1–6
- 3House homered to left center (445 feet), Abrams scored and Lile scored.1–5
- 3Chaparro scored on Pérez wild pitch and Young scored on throwing error by catcher Mack, Abrams to second on wild pitch by Pérez.1–2
- 3Chaparro scored on Pérez wild pitch and Young scored on throwing error by catcher Mack, Abrams to second on wild pitch by Pérez.1–2
- 2Edwards singled to right, Sanoja scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML MIA -134 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −13 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +34 Elo | MIA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–39 | Road vs home | 29–3827th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–68 | 77–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 21–17 |
| Underdog | 37–37 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders | 64–66–4 | 69–59–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 28–20 WSH in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 48.