Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Will DionPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7House singled to right, Chaparro scored, House to second.3–6
- 7Chaparro singled to right, Ortiz scored on throwing error by right fielder Ruiz, Chaparro to second.3–5
- 7Lile homered to right (373 feet), Nuñez scored.3–4
- 5Lile homered to left center (406 feet), Pinckney scored.3–2
- 4Stowers singled to center, Ramírez scored and Sanoja scored.3–0
- 4Hernández scored, Sanoja to second, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Perales.1–0
- 4Hernández scored on Perales wild pitch, Sanoja to second on wild pitch by Perales, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Perales.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -108 / WSH +101
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Will Dion (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +3 Elo | MIA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–41 | Road vs home | 31–3927th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–70 | 79–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 21–18 |
| Underdog | 38–37 | 58–42 |
| Overs–unders | 66–67–4 | 71–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 29–22 WSH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 51.