Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino doubled to right, Tolbert scored.3–7
- 8Perez doubled to left, Caglianone scored.3–6
- 8Caglianone singled to center, Jensen scored.3–5
- 5Jensen homered to right center (440 feet), Isbel scored.3–4
- 4Ramírez homered to center (426 feet).3–2
- 3Caglianone doubled to right, Jensen scored.2–2
- 3Jensen tripled to center, Isbel scored.2–1
- 2Mack singled to right, Marsee scored.2–0
- 1Hernández homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML MIA +104 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- KC: Elo 50.2%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +15 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +2 Elo | KC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 36–3215th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–71 | 74–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 40–37 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 68–68–4 | 64–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–3 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.