Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee homered to right center (392 feet).9–6
- 9Sanoja homered to left center (394 feet).8–6
- 6Hernández doubled to center, Conine scored.7–6
- 6Serna hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsee scored.6–6
- 6Conine singled to right, Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.5–6
- 5Hernández hit a ground rule double, Serna scored, Mack to third.4–6
- 4Jensen homered to right (398 feet).3–6
- 3Stowers homered to center (410 feet).3–5
- 1Massey doubled to center, Loftin scored.2–5
- 1Perez homered to left center (392 feet), Caglianone scored.2–4
- 1Caglianone doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Jensen homered to right (414 feet).2–1
- 1Stowers singled to center, Lopez scored.2–0
- 1Lopez tripled to left, Hernández scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML MIA +104 / KC -126
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- KC: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +2 Elo | KC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–42 | Road vs home | 36–3115th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–71 | 74–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 39–37 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 67–68–4 | 63–70–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.