Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-4
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch homered to right center (427 feet).6–1
- 7Ruiz grounded out to second, Conine scored, Sanoja to third.5–1
- 7Crow-Armstrong scored on Blalock wild pitch.5–0
- 7Crow-Armstrong scored on Blalock wild pitch.5–0
- 6Ramirez hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored.4–0
- 6Hoerner singled to left, Busch scored, Happ to second, Bregman to third.3–0
- 6Happ walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bregman to second, Busch to third.2–0
- 2Ramirez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Happ scored, Hoerner out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML CHC -161 / MIA +133
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.3%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -144
- MIA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +37 Elo | CHC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 42–274th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–71 | 69–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–56 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders | 76–58–7 | 69–68–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–9 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.