Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stowers homered to center (442 feet).6–5
- 6Busch singled to right, Conforto scored, Suzuki to third.6–4
- 5Conine homered to right (430 feet), Sanoja scored.5–4
- 5Hoerner singled to right, Busch scored.5–2
- 4Mack grounded into fielder's choice to left, Lopez scored, Caissie out at second.4–2
- 4Caissie grounded into fielder's choice to second, Conine scored, Marsee out at second, Lopez to third.4–1
- 4Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.4–0
- 3Happ singled to right, Amaya and Suzuki scored, Bregman to third.3–0
- 3Conforto homered to center (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -126 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.0%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −3 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3039–31 | Road vs home | 42–285th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–71 | 69–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–56 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders | 76–59–7 | 69–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–9 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.