Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lara singled to left, Turang scored, Frelick to second, Contreras to third.3–4
- 9Chourio homered to left (394 feet), Yelich scored.3–3
- 9Kelly doubled to center, Hoerner scored and Ramirez scored, Conforto to third.3–1
- 1Turang singled to center, Chourio scored.1–1
- 1Busch singled to right, Suzuki scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CHC +163 / MIL -199
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.4%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -175
- CHC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 2.9 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +13 | CHC: David Peterson: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–33 | Road vs home | 48–241st of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–73 | 76–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 38–58 | 52–58 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 78–60–7 | 64–76–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–31 MIL in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 55.