Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon EisertPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murakami homered to right center (381 feet).4–2
- 7Antonacci reached on infield single to first, B. Montgomery scored, Teel to second, Meidroth to third.4–1
- 7Griffin singled to center, Horwitz scored and Simon scored.4–0
- 7Flores Jr. singled to center, Cook scored, Horwitz to third.2–0
- 5Valdez homered to right (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML PIT +108 / CHW -131
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 48.3%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -118
- PIT +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −11 | PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3034–39 | Road vs home | 43–296th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–81 | 77–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–51 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 37–30 | 62–38 |
| Overs–unders | 75–64–6 | 81–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–4 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.