Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds homered to right (421 feet).6–1
- 7Meckler doubled to center, Trout scored and Neto scored, Meckler to third.6–0
- 7Trout singled to left, Frazier scored, Neto to second.4–0
- 5Neto singled to center, Guzman scored.3–0
- 5Lowe homered to center (410 feet).2–0
- 4Ballesteros singled to right, Meckler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML LAA +154 / PIT -188
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 63.5%, market 62.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +96 Elo | PIT 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 30th of 3023–44 | Road vs home | 37–3314th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–77 | 63–79 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 27–49 |
| Underdog | 56–52 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–80–3 | 74–62–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–5 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.