New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ballesteros homered to right (391 feet), Meckler scored.6–3
- 10Rice singled to right, Bellinger scored, Grisham to second.6–1
- 10Grisham singled to left, Wells scored, Bellinger to second.5–1
- 10Bellinger singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Wells to second.4–1
- 10Wells singled to right, Caballero scored and Rosario scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.3–1
- 7Grissom homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 4Rosario hit a ground rule double, Bellinger scored, Rice to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -161 / LAA +133
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.8%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -144
- LAA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 2.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +76 Elo | NYY 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–29 | Road vs home | 30–4329th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–66 | 63–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 50–57 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 55–51 |
| Overs–unders | 59–75–5 | 57–79–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 12–13 LAA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.