Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to center (404 feet), Bohm scored, Crawford scored and Realmuto scored.5–3
- 5Hill reached on bunt single to first, Bohm scored, De La Cruz to second.1–3
- 1Meckler scored on Painter wild pitch, Ballesteros to third on wild pitch by Painter.0–3
- 1Meckler scored on Painter wild pitch, Ballesteros to third on wild pitch by Painter.0–3
- 1Trout scored on Painter wild pitch, Ballesteros to second on wild pitch by Painter, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Painter.0–2
- 1Trout scored on Painter wild pitch, Ballesteros to second on wild pitch by Painter, Meckler to third on wild pitch by Painter.0–2
- 1Meckler singled to center, Neto scored, Trout to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -113 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.9%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +14 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 6th of 3035–30 | Road vs home | 29–3928th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 144528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–75 | 62–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–56 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 54–47 |
| Overs–unders | 61–65–8 | 54–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.