Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-3, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh homered to right (351 feet).2–9
- 5Young homered to right (356 feet).2–8
- 5Raleigh homered to right center (397 feet).2–7
- 3Rodríguez scored on Wheeler wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Wheeler, Naylor to third on wild pitch by Wheeler.2–6
- 3Rodríguez scored on Wheeler wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Wheeler, Naylor to third on wild pitch by Wheeler.2–6
- 2Realmuto homered to left center (377 feet).2–5
- 1Raleigh homered to right (378 feet), Ward scored.1–5
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (392 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.1–3
- 1Bohm grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Arraez to second, Harper to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -114 / SEA +106
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.9%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +19 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–28 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–73 | 52–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–55 | 32–59 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 60–63–8 | 66–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–3 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.