St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm tripled to center, Harper scored and Sosa scored.6–7
- 10Fermín singled to left, Burleson scored.6–5
- 8Torres singled to center, Burleson scored, Pereira to second.5–5
- 6Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Realmuto to third.4–5
- 6Realmuto doubled to left, Bohm scored, Marsh to third.4–4
- 6Walker homered to right center (392 feet), Herrera scored.4–3
- 3Bohm singled to right, Arraez scored.2–3
- 2Realmuto doubled to left, Marsh scored.2–2
- 2Marsh doubled to right, Stott scored.2–1
- 1Báez homered to right center (360 feet), Walker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML STL +227 / PHI -246
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.0%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -232
- STL +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +64 Elo | PHI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 35–3011th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–58 | 56–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 41–54 |
| Underdog | 57–27 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 52–70–7 | 57–63–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–12 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.