St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermín grounded out to shortstop, Church scored.3–12
- 8Schwarber homered to right (367 feet).2–12
- 8Wetherholt homered to center (417 feet).2–11
- 6Harper homered to right center (390 feet), Crawford scored and Turner scored.1–11
- 6Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored.1–8
- 6Burleson singled to left, Jordan scored.1–7
- 3Hill doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.0–7
- 3Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Sosa scored, De La Cruz to third.0–6
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, Arraez scored and Bohm scored, De La Cruz to second, Sosa to third.0–5
- 1Sosa doubled to center, Bohm scored and Turner scored, Sosa to third.0–3
- 1Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored, Turner to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML STL +143 / PHI -154
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.8%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -147
- STL +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −26 | STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 36–3011th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–58 | 56–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 41–55 |
| Underdog | 58–27 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–70–7 | 58–63–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–13 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.