St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schwarber homered to center (459 feet), De La Cruz scored.4–6
- 9De La Cruz singled to left, Sosa scored.4–4
- 9Sosa doubled to left, Crawford scored, Harper scored and Realmuto scored.4–3
- 7Wetherholt singled to right, Urías scored, Pagés to second.4–0
- 5Fermín homered to left center (397 feet).3–0
- 4Burleson singled to right, Walker scored.2–0
- 1Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML STL +200 / PHI -216
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.1%, market 67.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -205
- STL +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +10 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +50 Elo | PHI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 37–3010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–59 | 57–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–31 | 42–55 |
| Underdog | 58–28 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 54–70–7 | 59–63–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–14 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.