Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Canzone singled to center, Crawford scored and Ward scored, Rodden to third.1–4
- 6Naylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Naylor thrown out at second.1–2
- 2Raleigh homered to right (362 feet).1–1
- 2Crawford singled to center, Stott scored, Marsh to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML PHI +103 / SEA -111
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.0%, market 51.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 36–3012th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–74 | 53–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–56 | 32–59 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–63–8 | 67–57–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.