Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3
- Bryan WooPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Schwarber homered to right center (425 feet), Marsh scored and Crawford scored.6–0
- 2Crawford singled to right, Stott scored, Marsh to second.3–0
- 1Harper homered to left center (388 feet), Schwarber scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -134 / SEA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +22 Elo | PHI 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 37–3012th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 7th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–75 | 54–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–56 | 33–59 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–64–8 | 67–58–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.