Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Heliot RamosBatting1-2
- Carlos RodonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rafaela singled to left, Sogard scored, Jones to second.6–0
- 9Sogard doubled to left, Monasterio scored.5–0
- 9Monasterio singled to right, Durbin scored and Rutschman scored.4–0
- 5Rutschman scored on a passed ball by Sánchez, Sogard to second on passed ball by Sánchez.2–0
- 5Rutschman scored on a passed ball by Sánchez, Sogard to second on passed ball by Sánchez.2–0
- 1Abreu homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 50%
- ML BOS -103 / NYY -104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.0%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -100
- BOS +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +21 Elo | NYY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–29 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 15435th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–66 | 70–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–49 | 48–55 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 62–68–4 | 55–74–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 30–22 NYY in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 52.