Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker scored on throwing error by third baseman Caballero, Diaz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lombard Jr.5–1
- 7Peña homered to left (382 feet).4–1
- 6Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.3–1
- 6Walker homered to right center (369 feet), Varsho scored.3–0
- 3Paredes singled to right, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML HOU +147 / NYY -158
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -151
- HOU +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.5 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +14 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +79 Elo | NYY 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–32 | Road vs home | 34–2914th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15455th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–66 | 70–62 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 48–53 |
| Underdog | 43–28 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 70–56–7 | 55–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–17 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.