Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Elmer RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8García Jr. homered to right (354 feet), Rice scored.3–9
- 7Chisholm Jr. doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Jones to third.3–7
- 7Jones singled to right, García Jr. scored, Bellinger to third.3–6
- 7Bellinger doubled to center, Grisham scored and Rice scored, García Jr. to third.3–5
- 7Altuve scored on error, Walker safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lombard Jr., Varsho safe at third on error.3–3
- 4Grisham grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero out at second, Wells to third.2–3
- 4Varsho homered to center (412 feet).2–2
- 1Lombard Jr. grounded out to first, García Jr. scored, Bellinger to third.1–2
- 1Rice homered to right (364 feet).1–1
- 1Altuve doubled to center, Paredes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML HOU +110 / NYY -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −7 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Elmer Rodriguez: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 33–2915th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15435th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–65 | 69–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 47–53 |
| Underdog | 43–27 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 69–56–7 | 54–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–16 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 24.