Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz singled to left, Smith scored on error, Diaz safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Bellinger.9–7
- 8Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Jones scored.8–7
- 8Paredes singled to center, Alvarez scored.8–6
- 8Alvarez tripled to right, Peña scored.7–6
- 8Diaz homered to right (356 feet).6–6
- 7García Jr. doubled to right, Grisham scored, Rice to third.5–6
- 6Peña homered to left center (385 feet), Diaz scored.5–5
- 5García Jr. homered to right (379 feet), Rice scored.3–5
- 5Varsho singled to right, Alvarez scored, Paredes to second.3–3
- 3Bellinger homered to right (368 feet), Grisham scored and García Jr. scored.2–3
- 3Varsho singled to left, Altuve scored.2–0
- 2Diaz homered to left center (383 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML HOU +131 / NYY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −11 | HOU: Ethan Pecko: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +53 Elo | NYY 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 33–2814th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15445th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–65 | 69–61 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 47–52 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 68–56–7 | 53–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–16 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.