Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Donovan WaltonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Astros- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heim grounded out to shortstop, Butler scored, White to third.4–3
- 8Butler singled to right, Gelof scored.3–3
- 8McNeil scored on Sousa wild pitch, Gelof to third on wild pitch by Sousa.2–3
- 8McNeil scored on Sousa wild pitch, Gelof to third on wild pitch by Sousa.2–3
- 7Peña singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Peña to second.1–3
- 7Varsho homered to left (358 feet).1–2
- 4Diaz doubled to left, Walker scored.1–1
- 3Walton homered to center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML ATH +217 / HOU -235
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.7%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -222
- ATH +222 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.1 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +90 Elo | HOU 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–40 | Road vs home | 33–3319th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 29th of 301428 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–70 | 66–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 48–42 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60–6 | 67–55–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 19–27 HOU in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 46.