Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brian ServenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Muncy homered to center (409 feet).7–6
- 5White singled to right, Gelof scored and Butler scored.6–6
- 5Butler doubled to left, Bolte scored, Gelof to third.4–6
- 5Serven homered to left center (402 feet), Walton scored and Hernaiz scored.3–6
- 4Paredes homered to left (350 feet), Peña scored.0–6
- 2Altuve walked, Smith scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.0–4
- 1Altuve homered to left center (370 feet), Alvarez scored.0–3
- 1Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML ATH +163 / HOU -176
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.8%, market 62.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -168
- ATH +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −19 | ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–40 | Road vs home | 33–3421st of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 29th of 301430 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–70 | 66–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 24–37 |
| Underdog | 49–42 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–61–6 | 67–56–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 20–27 HOU in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.