Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting2-4
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout doubled to right, Meckler scored.5–2
- 9Harper doubled to center, Realmuto scored, Hill to third. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–1
- 8Marsh singled to right, Turner scored, Bohm to second.4–1
- 8Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.3–1
- 7Sosa homered to left (375 feet).2–1
- 3Realmuto homered to center (403 feet).1–1
- 1Ballesteros grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Meckler scored, Grissom out at second, Trout to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -161 / LAA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +95 Elo | PHI 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 29–4129th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–75 | 62–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 46–56 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 54–49 |
| Overs–unders | 62–66–8 | 55–78–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–4 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.