Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Meckler grounded into fielder's choice to first, Guzman scored, Ballesteros out at second.4–2
- 10Turner singled to right, Crawford scored and Stubbs scored.4–1
- 10Schwarber doubled to left, Realmuto scored, Crawford to third.2–1
- 8Neto homered to left center (407 feet).1–1
- 2Marsh singled to center, Bohm scored, Stott to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML PHI -223 / LAA +206
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -211
- LAA +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 3.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +73 Elo | PHI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–30 | Road vs home | 29–4028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–75 | 62–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 45–56 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 62–65–8 | 55–77–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.