Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-2, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells homered to right center (358 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.1–16
- 8Caballero homered to left (402 feet), García Jr. scored and Rosario scored.1–14
- 8Grisham hit sacrifice fly to right, Jones scored.1–11
- 8Goldschmidt homered to right (355 feet).1–10
- 8Wells homered to right (343 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.1–9
- 8Sogard singled to right, Story scored.1–7
- 7Rosario singled to center, Jones scored, García Jr. to second.0–7
- 6Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored.0–6
- 5Ramos homered to left (416 feet), Goldschmidt scored and Bellinger scored.0–5
- 5Goldschmidt singled to center, Caballero scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -141 / NYY +131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.4%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- NYY +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 3.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −17 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–30 | Road vs home | 36–3114th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 15435th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–67 | 71–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–49 | 49–56 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 63–69–4 | 56–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 31–23 NYY in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 54.