Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice singled to center, Jones scored and Wells scored, Caballero to third.2–9
- 8Wells reached on infield single to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored and Rosario scored, Jones to second.2–7
- 8Rosario singled to right, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.2–5
- 8Contreras tripled to right, Abreu scored.2–4
- 6Jones hit sacrifice fly to left, García Jr. scored.1–4
- 3Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.1–3
- 3García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Ramos out at second, Rice to third.1–2
- 3Rice singled to right, Caballero scored, Grisham to second, Grisham safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Abreu.1–1
- 3Sogard homered to right (351 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML BOS +130 / NYY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -134
- BOS +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | BOS: Alec Gamboa: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–29 | Road vs home | 35–3114th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301550 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–66 | 70–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–49 | 48–56 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 62–69–4 | 55–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 31–22 NYY in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 53.