New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Elmer RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moore singled to left, Grissom scored.1–10
- 8Grissom doubled to center, Siri scored and Trout scored.1–9
- 6Grissom grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Neto scored on error, Meckler safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Caballero.1–7
- 5Moore scored, Moore to third on pickoff error by pitcher Fulmer.1–6
- 5Moore scored, Moore to third on pickoff error by pitcher Fulmer.1–6
- 5Moore doubled to shortstop, Grissom scored.1–5
- 5Jones homered to right center (398 feet).1–4
- 4Trout singled to left, Heineman scored and Neto scored.0–4
- 4Neto singled to left, Peraza scored, Neto to second, Heineman to third.0–2
- 3Grissom singled to center, Heineman scored, Meckler to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -121 / LAA +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.4%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +10 | NYY: Elmer Rodriguez: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +74 Elo | NYY 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3041–28 | Road vs home | 29–4229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 4th of 301547 | Elo rating | 144128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–65 | 62–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 49–56 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 54–50 |
| Overs–unders | 57–75–5 | 55–79–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–12 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.