New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to left, Bellinger scored, García Jr. to second.7–3
- 8Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.6–3
- 8Grisham singled to left, Jones scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.5–3
- 6Moore tripled to right, Meckler scored and Ballesteros scored.4–3
- 3Meckler singled to right, Neto scored, Meckler thrown out at second.4–1
- 3García Jr. grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Rice scored, Bellinger out at second.4–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to left (341 feet).3–0
- 1Jones homered to center (398 feet), Bellinger scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 63%
- ML NYY -192 / LAA +157
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.8%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -169
- LAA +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 2.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +106 Elo | NYY 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3041–29 | Road vs home | 30–4229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 144528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 63–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 49–57 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 55–50 |
| Overs–unders | 58–75–5 | 56–79–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–13 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.